Publications
Book Projects
The Price of a Planet: Distributional Coalitions in Climate Politics
Under review at Cambridge University PressProducing Certainty: How Climate Coalitions Are Built and Broken
In progressPeer-Reviewed Articles
Peer-reviewed Article
2023
Quantifying the Value of Energy Security: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Exploded Europe’s Fossil Fuel Costs
Environmental Research & Social Science vol. 103 Abstract Publisher's Version What is the value of energy security? Fossil fuels are subject to interruptions or major price swings based on wars or other geopolitical events. Here, we analyze multiple dimensions of energy security, and quantify the energy security risks of geopolitical volatility in a specific case: we estimate how much Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased Europe’s fossil fuel costs above normal. For the excess market costs, we count only the fuel costs beyond our estimates of the counterfactual costs. We find that Europe spent an extra €517–831 billion in excess market costs due to higher prices in the period October 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022, with a best estimate of €643 billion. European governments also announced an additional €908 billion of fiscal spending on energy-related infrastructure and policies. These two categories of costs are not fully commensurable, but the total fossil costs appear over €1 trillion. We then compare these costs to two reference points: Europe’s direct material aid to Ukraine in 2022 and the costs of more rapidly decarbonizing Europe’s energy system.
2023
Stranded Energy Assets and Realistic Climate Policy Advice
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy vol. 17 no. 1 Abstract Publisher's Version Many types of capital stocks—natural, physical, human—stand to lose value due to climate policy and become stranded. The owners of such assets will resist climate policies. We survey the recent literature on climate economics and highlight research gaps related to stranded assets. In line with recent literature in political science, we argue economists should put more emphasis on the distributional consequences of asset stranding, in order to be able to give more effective policy recommendations. Our recommended policies focus on targeting new capital stocks related to energy production and consumption: banning fossil-intensive investment and encouraging investment into renewable and energy-efficient capital. These policies face less resistance and can improve credibility of future carbon pricing.
2022
Peer-reviewed Article
De-Risking Decarbonization: Accelerating Fossil Fuel Retirement by Shifting Costs to Future Winners
Global Environmental Politics vol. 22 no 4 Abstract Pre-print Publisher’s Version Fossil fuel–rich developing countries should be included in climate change mitigation. But they need money, above what rich countries have been willing to provide, to do so. I argue that existing approaches to international and intergenerational transfers have failed to bridge the gap between developing and developed countries’ interests. I present a new model in which the costs of present climate action are distributed not according to present or historical wealth but according to future wealth. I demonstrate the basic feasibility of this approach with an implementation I call income-adjusted guarantees. I argue that such an arrangement can help accelerate fossil fuel retirement in developing countries and break the deadlock over global climate financing.
Peer-reviewed Article
2021
From Peril to Promise? Local Adaptation and Mitigation Policy Decisions after Extreme Weather
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability vol. 52 AbstractPublisher’s Version Exposure to extreme weather—the frequency and severity of which has been linked to the climate crisis—has been posited to yield local climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. Here, we outline lessons from a nascent, but growing, literature focused on local policymaking in the wake of extreme weather events. Recent research shows that exposure often yields local adaptation policy, but mitigation is rare. Moreover, while policy change is conditional on event characteristics and local contextual factors, there is no clear formula for local policy action. We call for a more robust theoretical framework and analysis of key combinations of event characteristics, contextual factors and mechanisms. We also recommend attending to the quality of local policy decisions in the spirit of Dietz’s criteria for environmental decision-making.
Peer-reviewed Article
2020
Local Adaptation Policy Responses to Extreme Weather Events
Policy Sciences vol. 53 AbstractPublisher’s Version At a global level, climate change is expected to result in more frequent and higher-intensity weather events, with impacts ranging from inconvenient to catastrophic. The potential for disasters to act as “focusing events” for policy change, including adaptation to climate change risk, is well known. Moreover, local action is an important element of climate change adaptation and related risk management efforts. As such, there is a good reason to expect local communities to mobilize in response to disaster events, both with immediate response and recovery-focused activities, as well as longer-term preparedness and adaptation-focused public policy changes. However, scholars also note that the experience of disaster does not always yield policy change; indeed, disasters can also result in policy inertia and failure, perhaps as often or more often than major policy change. This study poses two key research questions. First, we ask to what degree policy change occurs in communities impacted by an extreme weather event. Second, we seek to understand the conditions that lead to adaptation-oriented policy adoption in response to an extreme weather event.
Peer-reviewed Article
2014
Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence
PLoS ONE vol. 9 no. 5 AbstractPublisher’s Version We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing a theory designed to predict the locations of violence and interventions that can promote peace. Characterizing the model's success in predicting peace requires examples where peace prevails despite diversity. Switzerland is recognized as a country of peace, stability and prosperity. This is surprising because of its linguistic and religious diversity that in other parts of the world lead to conflict and violence. Here we analyze how peaceful stability is maintained.
Peer-reviewed Article
2013
An Exploration of Social Identity: The Geography and Politics of News-Sharing Communities in Twitter
Complexity, vol. 19 no. 2 AbstractPublisher’s Version The importance of collective social action in current events is manifest in the Arab Spring and Occupy movements. Electronic social media have become a pervasive channel for social interactions, and a basis of collective social response to information. The study of social media can reveal how individual actions combine to become the collective dynamics of society. Characterizing the groups that form spontaneously may reveal both how individuals self-identify and how they will act together. Here we map the social, political, and geographical properties of news-sharing communities on Twitter, a popular microblogging platform. We track user-generated messages that contain links to New York Times online articles and we label users according to the topic of the links they share, their geographic location, and their self-descriptive keywords.Policy Reports
2023
The Cool Way to Heat Homes: Installing Heat Pumps Instead of Central Air Conditioners in Canada
Building Decarbonization Alliance, Efficiency Canada, Canadian Climate Institute, Greenhouse Institute Abstract Report Website Full Report The heating and cooling equipment that Canadians rely on has big consequences for their finances and their environment. To meet the growing need for cooling, many people are buying central air conditioners and pairing them with their existing heating source. But in doing so, they inadvertently miss an opportunity to get high-efficiency, low-emissions heating and cooling from a single piece of equipment: a heat pump.
2022
Electrify My Government: How a federal government-wide electrification campaign will meet our emissions goals
Rewiring America Abstract Report Website Full Report The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—the largest climate bill in U.S. history—is projected to get the U.S. much closer to where we need to be in fighting the climate crisis, reducing greenhouse gas pollution by one billion metric tons relative to the status quo. But there remains a 500 million metric ton gap between what the IRA can achieve and President Biden’s net-zero-aligned target of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas pollution 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. The federal government can help close this gap.
2022
Fulfilling the Promise of Public Safety: Some Lessons from Recent Research
Crime and Justice Policy Lab AbstractFull Report Many American communities are wrestling with how to reform their approach to public safety in the wake of police killings, particularly of Black men. There are many ideas for what the right reforms might be, ranging from minor policy tweaks to wholesale replacement of departments. To help communities as they sort through these ideas, we review real experiences with policing reform, highlighting wherever possible the best scientific evidence on the subject.
2021
3H: An Incentive Program to Electrify Space Heating and Reduce Energy Bills in American Homes
CLASP AbstractFull Report This report proposes a low-barrier, least-cost policy package to rapidly deploy efficient space heating and cooling solutions in the United States. It aims to “raise the floor” for electric space heating in the residential HVAC market, delivering 45 million new installations over 10 years and paving the way for more ambitious decarbonization efforts.
2020
COVID-19 Recovery: How the G20 Can Accelerate Sustainable Energy Transitions in the Power Sector by Supporting the Private Sector
T20 Climate Change and Environment Task Force AbstractPublic Version COVID-19 has dramatically changed the socioeconomic context for clean energy transitions worldwide. Fiscal rescue and recovery measures that unaligned with a green, resilient, and just recovery will miss the historic opportunity to realign global economic and energy trajectories with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Given its potential to accelerate sustainable energy transitions and deliver jobs, the private sector should be placed at the heart of targeted post-COVID-19 economic recovery policies. This policy brief outlines recommendations for achieving sustainable energy transitions in the power sector across G20 economies by focusing on how governments can support the private sector to deliver economic growth, jobs, and climate action. The proposed measures involve (1) coordinating on sustainable recovery measures in the G20, (2) expanding renewable energy generation, (3) accurately reflecting environmental externalities and ensuring just transitions in the fossil-fuel sector, and (4) promoting efficient electricity consumption and faster electrification.Articles Under Review
Fuzzy Shocks
Under review Abstract Though exogenous shocks can be valuable for estimating causal relationships, some types of shocks create deeper challenges for measurement and modeling than others. These fuzzy shocks force researchers to make often difficult decisions about whether and to what extent any given unit of observation is treated. We present a framework for systematically engaging with the ambiguities of how fuzzy shocks operate in space, time, and character. We then develop a set of novel techniques for testing the robustness of research designs involving fuzzy shocks. Applying our methods to the case of extreme weather and public opinion, we demonstrate that small differences in measurement and modeling can substantially alter the sign and significance of results. We provide researchers with tools to take a more systematic approach to sensitivity analysis when studying fuzzy shocks.Articles In Progress
Policymaking Under Uncertainty: The Case of Climate Coalitions
Presented at the Climate Pipeline Project 2022Do Focusing Events Focus Attention? Text Analysis of Climate Discourse After Disasters
Presented at MPSA 2021 Abstract We apply topic modelling to local media coverage of natural disasters in the United States, and find that climate change is not a major focus of such coverage. We also find that there is a split in the discourse: articles discussing long-term governmental responses are more likely to discuss climate change, but articles discussing personal and emergency responses are less likely to mention climate change. This split suggests that climate change may not be linked to the most emotionally salient portions of disaster discourse, potentially reducing their ability to act as “focusing events.”Asset Substitution: Reducing Incumbent Resistance to Climate Mitigation
Presented at the Climate Futures Workshop 2021Mitigating Mitigation: How Labor Protection Strengthens Climate Policy
Presented at APSA 2018, WPSA 2019 Abstract Climate change policy has distributive impacts, potentially affecting investors, consumers, and workers. But climate policy does not emerge in a vacuum: it is formed within pre-existing political economy contexts which shape its chances of passage and where its costs ultimately fall. There is longstanding interest in whether countries that protect labor or that have strong labor movements are more or less likely to enact strong mitigation policy. So far the relevant literature has focused on overall pollution levels and national measures of policy, and not on the distribution of policy burdens across different parts of the economy. The results have been con icting, with evidence for both labor support and labor blocking. This paper helps to resolve this debate by employing sector-level data on mitigation policy stringency. I show that the effect of arrangements which protect labor—like coordinating institutions, strong unions, and stringent employment policies—are conditional on sector-specific factors. I conclude that when protective arrangements are in place, labor is willing to accept higher climate policy burdens.Pocketbook Preferences: How Sector of Employment Affects Support for Climate Policy
Presented at EPG 2019Book Chapters
2015
Conflict in Yemen: From Ethnic Fighting to Food Riots
Chapter in Conflict and Complexity (Springer: P. Vos Fellman, Y. Bar-Yam, A.A. Minai, eds.) AbstractPublisher’s VersionarXiv Yemen is considered a global terrorist base for Al-Qaeda and in recent years rampant violence is threatening social order. Here we show that the socio-economic origins of violence recently changed. Prior to 2008, violence can be attributed to inter-group conflict between ethnically and religiously distinct groups. Starting in 2008, increasing global food prices triggered a new wave of violence that spread to the endemically poor southern region with demands for government change and economic concessions. This violence shares its origins with many other food riots and the more recent Arab Spring. The loss of social order and the opportunities for terror organizations can be best addressed by directly eliminating the causes of violence. Inter-group violence can be addressed by delineating within-country provinces for local autonomy of ethnic and religious groups. The impact of food prices can be alleviated by direct food price interventions, or by addressing the root causes of global food price increases in US policies that have promoted conversion of corn to ethanol and commodity speculation. Addressing the food prices is the most urgent concern as a new bubble in food prices has been projected to begin before the end of 2012.
2015
Complexity and the Limits of Revolution: What Will Happen to the Arab Spring?
Chapter in Conflict and Complexity (Springer: P. Vos Fellman, Y. Bar-Yam, A.A. Minai, eds.) AbstractPublisher’s VersionarXiv The recent social unrest across the Middle East and North Africa has deposed dictators who had ruled for decades. While the events have been hailed as an “Arab Spring” by those who hope that repressive autocracies will be replaced by democracies, what sort of regimes will eventually emerge from the crisis remains far from certain. Here we provide a complex systems framework, validated by historical precedent, to help answer this question. We describe the dynamics of governmental change as an evolutionary process similar to biological evolution, in which complex organizations gradually arise by replication, variation, and competitive selection. Different kinds of governments, however, have differing levels of complexity. Democracies must be more systemically complex than autocracies because of their need to incorporate large numbers of people in decision-making. This difference has important implications for the relative robustness of democratic and autocratic governments after revolutions. Revolutions may disrupt existing evolved complexity, limiting the potential for building more complex structures quickly. Insofar as systemic complexity is reduced by revolution, democracy is harder to create in the wake of unrest than autocracy. Applying this analysis to the Middle East and North Africa, we infer that in the absence of stable institutions or external assistance, new governments are in danger of facing increasingly insurmountable challenges and reverting to autocracy.
2015